All offensive players in the top ten and six quarterbacks coming off the board are the highlights for my final predictions about how Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft might play out.
1. CHI (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Williams should have been written in stone here since Carolina locked up the No. 1 pick, and Chicago will hope to take a big leap with the former Heisman winner under center. Who will be joining him with another top-ten pick (assuming it’s not traded) later tonight?
2. WAS: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
My initial instinct to begin the draft process was that Washington would trade this pick, but new general manager Adam Peters has all but confirmed they will be taking a quarterback here. Recent drama around the Topgolf visit last week isn’t enough to go with Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy over Daniels.
3. NE: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
This seems to be where the real intrigue begins, as New England might get a Godfather offer from Minnesota (or the Giants) to move back—which would really accelerate a rebuild. Smoke seems to suggest they will stay and pick Maye, though, and the team seems comfortable starting Jacoby Brissett to begin 2024.
4. ARI: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
You can’t really go wrong between Harrison and Malik Nabers, but Arizona opts for the polish of the second generation wideout—who has some Larry Fitzgerald to his game. If they ended up trading back and don’t get one of the “Big 3” at wide receiver, I would keep an eye on Dallas Turner as the possible selection.
5. LAC: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
You could argue that offensive tackle isn’t a need for the Chargers with Trey Pipkins III being a solid starter on the right side—but Latham feels like a Jim Harbaugh guy. The pick is almost certainly between him, Joe Alt (who I believe can easily play right tackle), Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze.
6. NYG: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Nabers has been slotted here for me in every mock, and he will provide maximum explosiveness for Daniel Jones—who is just a year removed from leading the Giants to a playoff win. The key will be the offensive line improving to allow Jones time to find Nabers and Jalin Hyatt down the field.
7. TEN: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Alt to Tennessee is another “chalky” pairing, and he would fill a huge hole at left tackle with the Titans declining to move Peter Skoronski outside. Some have suggested wide receiver will be in the play—and it could be—but I like the idea of bolstering the protection considering some of the issues Will Levis has feeling pressure.
8. DEN (mock trade w/ ATL): J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
McCarthy being here at this point would lead to most mocking a trade up by Minnesota, but I believe they will be targeting another passer—allowing Denver to move up instead. The thinking here is that McCarthy is essentially the exact opposite quarterback that Russell Wilson was, and we know Sean Payton wasn’t happy with how the offense operated in 2023.
9. CHI: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Bears only have four draft picks and could trade back, but Caleb Williams is now the most important member of the organization, and adding Odunze to an offense that already includes DJ Moore and Keenan Allen would put him in agreatposition to have immediate and long-term success.
10. NYJ: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Offensive line is a popular position to mock for the Jets, but Joe Douglas has been swinging for the fences all offseason—which I have loved—so it doesn’t make sense to grab an insurance policy up front when the strategy has been to go all in. Adding Bowers to boost the playmakers for Aaron Rodgers falls in line with the moves made in free agency.
11. MIN: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Still no quarterback for Minnesota, but it’d be a calculated risk to hope their target is on the board at No. 23—and it sounds like there is no chance of Murphy lasting that long. Based on how interior defenders have been paid this offseason, it’s a forward-thinking selection by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.
12. ATL (mock trade w/ DEN): Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama
Atlanta can move back and almost certainly get one of Turner, Laiatu Latu, or Byron Murphy II—so the thought process for moving back is easy to follow. If Turner develops at the level many are expecting, the defense could be good in a hurry to support the Kirk Cousins-led offense.
13. LV: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Moving up for Jayden Daniels is probably a pipe dream, and I had thoughts of Las Vegas moving back to have the Eagles come up for Arnold… but the idea was quickly off the table considering Tom Telesco never traded back in 11 years with the Chargers.
14. NO: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
It’s a near-consensus opinion that New Orleans will take an offensive tackle, but the prospect they select is more up in the air. For me, Fashanu is the best one of the class, and a best-case scenario would have him on the blindside with former All-Pro right tackle Ryan Ramczyk (knee) finding a way to get healthy.
15. IND: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Chris Ballard is obsessed with athletic traits, and while I am lower on Mitchell than others, the scheme fit should help him reach his potential in Indy. The Toledo product had prototype size and ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the Combine.
16. SEA: Troy Fautanu, G, Washington
Fautanu played under new Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb at Washington, and he could push for snaps at either guard spot—or maybe even right tackle if Abraham Lucas (knee) can’t get healthy or isn’t quite himself after battling injuries in Year 2.
17. SF (mock trade w/ JAX): Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
As you might have guessed, the 49ers are picking here because of a mock trade with Brandon Aiyuk heading to Jacksonville—a move that has been rumored and might be accelerated after Amon-Ra St Brown’s extension yesterday. San Francisco would need to hit on a wideout at some point, but Fuaga would make things much easier for Brock Purdy at either right tackle or right guard.
18. CIN: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Bengals have clearly slanted towards giant options at offensive tackle in recent years, and Mims is on another level as afitmonster with rare athleticism at his size. I’m sure Joe Burrow would be on board with the pick.
19. LAR: Laiatu Latu, OLB, UCLA
Latushouldgo much higher than this—we have him as a top-five prospect—but the neck injury causes at least some uncertainty. I also wouldn’t sleep on Bo Nix to the Rams as Matthew Stafford’s successor, and LA has plenty of picks to make a move up for another Round 1 selection depending on how things go.
20. PIT: Graham Barton, C, Duke
Barton is one of my favorite players in the class, and it seems Pittsburgh—with a hole at center—is targeting him here. Cornerback is the sneaky need to get a guy to pair with Joey Porter Jr. for the next several years, but Donte Jackson gives them optionality, and it’s a deep class.
21. MIA: Jackson Powers-Johnson, G, Oregon
Miami signed center Aaron Brewer to a three-year deal this offseason, but I could see Mike McDaniel loving Powers-Johnson because of his toughness/grit, and he would have no problems playing guard.
22. BUF (mock trade w/ PHI): Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
A few weeks ago, Malik Nabers said he thinks his former teammate in Thomas will end up with the Bills—and they strike here to move up for the big-play threat. While too lofty to use as a player comparison, Thomas reminds me of Randy Moss in terms of the role he projects to have.
23. MIN (from HOU via CLE): Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Again, waiting would be a risk for the Vikings, but the gamble will have paid off in abigway by getting Nix—who hits on all the traits described by Kevin O’Connell earlier this offseason. Whether it’s Nix or one of the other rookies, Minnesota is a perfect situation for a quarterback to have success in.
24. DAL: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
I wouldn’t count out a defender such as Johnny Newton or Darius Robinson depending on how the board falls, but offensive line is the heavy expectation here. Guyton would allow the Cowboys to keep Tyler Smith at left guard, and the prospect profile is somewhat similar as a talented player that needs some refinement.
25. GB: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
DeJean is seemingly in play as high as No. 16 to Seattle, but he’s been connected to the Packers for the entire process and would be a nice fit for the new system under Jeff Hafley. Ideally, the Packers would have Eric Stokes return to his rookie form while DeJean does a bit of everything in Year 1.
26. TB: Jared Verse, OLB, Florida State
YaYa Diaby was a hit for Tampa Bay last year, and adding Verse to the pass rush could create some very uncomfortable pockets for opposing quarterbacks. Cornerback is also a need after trading away Carlton Davis, but again, it’s a deep class with plenty of starting-caliber options set to be available on Day 2.
27. ARI (via HOU): Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
Newton said he loved the Cardinals when speaking at the Combine a couple of months ago, and the disruptive defensive lineman can create havoc inside. Chop Robinson is the other name I would imagine being a potential target for Arizona here.
28. PHI (mock trade w/ BUF): Chop Robinson, OLB, Penn State
I would go with Ladd McConkey to completely stack the offense, but Philadelphia has seemed to zero in on prospects they have brought in for “Top 30” visits in recent years—a list which includes Robinson. The emphasis on the trenches should make Robinson a realistic target despite adding Bryce Huff in free agency.
29. DET: Darius Robinson, DE, Missouri
Dan Campbell has admitted that Detroit will likely be trading back if their guy isn’t on the board—potentially leading to disappointment from the “home” crowd. That said, the homegrown Robinson could be “the guy” for the Lions, and I’m sure Campbell would be sold by his football character.
30. LV (mock trade w/ BAL): Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Penix is too good to not be included as a first-round pick, so the Raiders—with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell in the quarterback room—strike by trading back up for the hard-throwing lefty. Antonio Pierce wanting to pound the ball would open up play-action deep shots for Penix to hit.
31. WAS (mock trade w/ SF): Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
There has been a ton of speculation about Washington moving up for an offensive lineman, and it’s easy to connect the dots with holes at both tackle spots. Suamataia has been linked to Kansas City, so Adam Peters might make a deal with his former team to jump them.
32. KC: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
I will be holding my breath if Ladd McConkey is available with the Chiefs on the clock, but Worthy is heavily favored to go in Round 1, and we have seen the kind of success Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid can have with speed. Worthy could seamlessly slide into the role Mecole Hardman Jr. typically played.
